10Y yield rises 11.9bp to 4.983%; BTC down 1.9% at $73,835
• 10Y yield rises 11.9bp to 4.983%• BTC down 1.9% at $73,835• Near-dated puts priced 7.1 vol points over calls
Chapter 1: Global Macro & Central Bank Liquidity
Start with the discount rate. The US 10-year sits at 4.983%(+11.9bp d/d), rising, 88th percentile over a year, and this is precisely the regime where cash flows furthest out get marked down hardest.
Money, however, moved the other way. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen -$968M over the last 5 sessions (Farside; the 10 Nov figure is still being finalized), so the rate burden is landing directly on price.
The resolution sits on the liquidity side. Take the Fed balance sheet at $6.75T, subtract the Treasury General Account at $922.6B and reverse repo at $200M, and $5.83T is what actually circulates (Fed H.4.1, US Treasury, NY Fed). Reverse repo has drained to $200M, which means the cash once parked at the Fed's window is already inside the market. Money is expensive, but it has not been withdrawn.
The dollar points the same way. DXY at 102.24(+0.58% d/d) against a 30-day correlation to bitcoin of -0.11 (1-year -0.19) keeps the structure intact: flows arrive when the dollar gives way. The settlement layer grew with it: USDT $175.8B (-1.57% w/w), USDC $70.0B (-1.71% w/w), and total stablecoin supply is -1.63% on the week (DefiLlama).
💡 Chief strategist's read: Today's numbers: the 10-year at 4.983% (+11.9bp d/d), net liquidity at $5.83T (-$12.2B since the last edition) and spot ETFs at -$968M over 5 sessions (from -$883M). When flows reverse, the rate burden passes straight through to price. Before the aggregate liquidity number, check how many sessions the ETF outflow has run.
| Asset | 30 days | 90 days | 1 year | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH (Ethereum) | +0.93 | +0.89 | +0.92 | Moves closely with BTC |
| Gold (Gold futures) | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | Moves loosely with BTC |
| S&P500 (S&P 500) | +0.68 | +0.47 | +0.46 | Moves closely with BTC |
| Nasdaq (Nasdaq Composite) | +0.70 | +0.50 | +0.47 | Moves closely with BTC |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | -0.11 | -0.27 | -0.19 | Little relationship |
| US10Y (US 10Y yield) | +0.24 | -0.08 | -0.06 | Little relationship |
Unlock Chapters 2 & 3 with Pro Pass
Chapter 2: funding, futures basis, option skew and the strikes where open interest is stacked. Chapter 3: AI infrastructure stocks and where both AEGIS models stand today, with their stop and target levels.
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