Bitcoin's macro and derivatives picture, in one five-minute read.
Every US market close, we bring rates, the dollar, ETF flows, options and funding together — sourced, and explained.
- ✓Every number sourced — Coinbase · Deribit · CoinMetrics · Farside · Yahoo
- ✓Published every US close, 17:30 ET
- ✓Research, not signals — every decision stays yours
Already a member? Sign in
From today's US-close data. Model status refreshes every 10 minutes.
Three things you get with Pro
Our two models, live
Live status for both models - when each last checked the market, whether it is long, short or flat, and its stop and target - plus the full simulation results.
The daily briefing
Market indicators ranked against their own history, BTC options positioning from Deribit open interest, and how BTC is moving against gold, equities, the dollar and rates.
Morning Insight Pass & GPU Desk
Morning Insight VIP portal included at no extra cost, and we run a GPU backtest of your own strategy at the Pro member rate, answered within 24 hours.
Today's Market Data & Context
The data table from today's briefing. The full briefing is published for Pro members at every US market close (17:30 ET).
| Metric | Latest Value | 24H Net Change | Market Status | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 7743.4 | +39.3 | Bullish - 96th pctile (1y) | Broad US market risk appetite and corporate equity benchmark. |
| Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 27068.7 | +129.4 | AI Tech Lead - 98th pctile (1y) | Broad US technology market breadth (composite index). |
| Dow Jones (DJI) | 51828.6 | +478.6 | Steady - 76th pctile (1y) | Cyclical and value sector rotation barometer. |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | 5.18% | +0.02 pts | Rising - 100th pctile (1y) | Benchmark risk-free rate & discount rate proxy. |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 100.97 | -0.32 | Softer - 91st pctile (1y) | Global monetary liquidity conditions indicator. |
| CBOE VIX Index | 14.87 | -0.80 | Low Volatility | Equity market implied volatility & tail-risk demand. |
| Coinbase Spot Premium | +0.011% | N/A | Neutral | Direct gauge of US institutional spot accumulation vs offshore. |
| Stablecoin Total Supply | $259.0B | +$1.35B (7d) | Expanding Liquidity | Total market cap of USDT + USDC dry powder. |
| BTC Futures Basis (BTC-16OCT26, Deribit, annualised) | 4.47% | N/A | Normal Premium | Annualised premium of nearest dated future over spot. |
| BTC Perpetual Funding | 0.00% | -0.13 pts | Neutral - 11th pctile (30d) | Perpetual contract leverage calibration. |
Chapter 1 is open to everyone. September 27, 2026
What members read tonight
Chapter 1 is free. Chapters 2 and 3, and the model levels, are for Pro members.
Derivatives show no sign of overheating. Futures basis at 4.47% with perpetual funding at 0.00% (neutral, 11th percentile over 30 days): this rally was not levered up…
Compress the table into one line: over the past month semis and compute average +7.8% while power and nuclear average -9.4% — a 17.2 percentage-point spread inside the…
Historical Simulation 2020–2026
Both AEGIS models, 2020 to today, on Bitget data with trading fees included.
Choose your plan
The daily briefing, live status of both AEGIS models, Morning Insight VIP and the member rate on GPU backtests.
For funds, prop desks and asset managers that need team access, data delivery or corporate invoicing. Scope and pricing are agreed per organization.
Custom backtesting of your strategy with walk-forward validation and Monte Carlo stress testing, run on rented GPU compute.