10Y yield rises 3.8bp to 5.136%; near-dated puts priced 15.7 vol points over calls

Start with the discount rate. The US 10-year sits at 5.136%(+3.8bp d/d), rising, 94th percentile over a year, and this is precisely the regime where cash flows furthest out get marked down hardest.

Money, however, moved the other way. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen -$163M over the last 5 sessions (Farside; the 19 Oct figure is still being finalized), so the rate burden is landing directly on price.

The resolution sits on the liquidity side. Take the Fed balance sheet at $6.76T, subtract the Treasury General Account at $948.5B and reverse repo at $300M, and $5.81T is what actually circulates (Fed H.4.1, US Treasury, NY Fed). Reverse repo has drained to $300M, which means the cash once parked at the Fed's window is already inside the market. Money is expensive, but it has not been withdrawn.

The dollar points the same way. DXY at 101.99(+0.15% d/d) against a 30-day correlation to bitcoin of -0.06 (1-year -0.18) keeps the structure intact: flows arrive when the dollar gives way. The settlement layer grew with it: USDT $183.2B (-0.47% w/w), USDC $72.3B (-1.09% w/w), and total stablecoin supply is -0.70% on the week (DefiLlama).

💡 Chief strategist's read: Today's numbers: the 10-year at 5.136% (+3.8bp d/d), net liquidity at $5.81T (-$14.0B since the last edition) and spot ETFs at -$163M over 5 sessions (from -$228M). When flows reverse, the rate burden passes straight through to price. Before the aggregate liquidity number, check how many sessions the ETF outflow has run.